Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 29.930834 33.611550 37.907289 43.383586 50.322615 59.037587 71.194803
2025-03-23 24.486658 29.141222 35.177061 43.940824 57.076557 77.596386 116.540526
2025-03-30 20.931554 26.051606 33.279100 45.050225 65.905469 108.046899 237.470904
2025-04-06 18.381733 23.705911 31.764976 46.304453 76.768161 161.150699 851.164591
2025-04-13 16.728645 22.277637 31.242056 49.165558 94.624657 296.589333 NaN
2025-04-20 14.895924 20.220215 29.171149 48.304838 104.099820 506.390484 NaN
2025-04-27 13.661553 18.897741 28.060312 49.079361 121.290412 1444.273018 NaN
2025-05-04 12.714153 17.890569 27.290265 50.384680 145.350839 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 11.778999 16.766765 26.056465 50.026627 163.856713 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 11.070709 15.943800 25.259547 50.585072 193.363457 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 10.520383 15.331108 24.776310 51.920258 240.532165 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 9.979855 14.672148 24.072536 52.288722 289.103635 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 9.509685 14.136626 23.647017 53.878591 395.042326 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 8.991925 13.466351 22.824333 53.791165 503.803798 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 8.575872 12.953428 22.295791 54.740550 744.905025 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 8.215809 12.514852 21.877036 56.058250 1314.719859 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 7.972397 12.281597 21.925614 59.707917 6682.367078 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 7.581267 11.715530 21.038925 58.316579 21688.635199 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 7.301007 11.351261 20.623035 59.239869 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 7.067063 11.061325 20.358228 60.934652 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 6.794103 10.668588 19.760060 60.378509 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 6.576240 10.374721 19.392941 61.099893 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-17 6.399682 10.154168 19.198211 62.904723 NaN NaN NaN